Quiet Thanksgiving – Mild Shopping Weather…

Good Morning and Happy Thanksgiving! I hope that you are well and safe this holiday, and if you’re gathering, that you take the required precautions to avoid COVID-19. Let’s take a look at the weather in the Front Range for the next several days.

STILL PARCHED: The snowstorm from earlier this week did bring some badly needed moisture to the region, but there is still a lot more needed before we can get out of this persistent drought. Have a look at the latest drought monitor map for Colorado:

Colorado Drought Map as of 11/25/2020

As you can see, the entire state is having issues, with exceptional and extreme drought the order of the day in a good portion of our state. We’ll be getting more precipitation in the area here over the next 7 to 10 days, so this should improve, at least a little bit.

NOT MUCH SEVERE TO SEE: We don’t have any severe weather here in the Metro or Rockies to talk about, and not much anywhere in the lower 48 really, other than down by the Gulf Coast and then into far southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

FIRE WEATHER: The only place right now where fire is a concern is in SoCal, where the “elevated” and “critical” risks are.

BLACK FRIDAY & THE WEEKEND: Taking a look at the weather for what will probably be the most unusual Black Friday that any of us have seen, a weak disturbance will drop into the area on the nose of Canadian high pressure building in for the weekend. We’ll see some snows this afternoon and tonight in the high country with minor accumulations. Some of this will slip into the Front Range, mainly along and west of I-25 between Fort Collins and the Springs as well, but I do not anticipate any travel issues or significant accumulations. Depending on where you are, some of that along I-25 could be rain as opposed to snow. Black Friday’s pre-dawn clouds should be gone by 7 AM, and you can expect sunny skies with temperatures climbing to the 45-50 range in the Metro, and 42-48 in the outlying areas. Saturday’s forecast includes abundant sunshine and mild temperatures topping out around 54 some spots could see as high as 58! Sunday we’ll keep the clear skies but turn the winds around to the north and cool things down to around 41.

Have a great Turkey Day! – Forecaster Mike

Winter Preview Starts Tonight

Good Evening!

Crazy, changeable Colorado weather takes a cold turn tonight as our first significant Canadian storm system roars into the region. Accumulating snows are coming to the high country and into the Front Range, as far as the I-25 corridor and even a bit east of that!

WINTER STORM WARNINGS START SOON: While the flakes you saw in the Metro earlier was ash blowing from wildfires active to the west, especially up in Boulder, we’ll start to see flakes of the snow variety later tonight. Winter Storm Warnings will start at midnight for the following places:

South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/
Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000'; South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above
9000'; Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000’ and 9000';
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast Grand/ Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000‘; South and Southeast Grand/West Central and Southwest Boulder/Gilpin/Clear Creek/Summit/North and West Park Counties Above 9000’; Larimer and Boulder Counties Between 6000’and 9000'; Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000’; Gilpin/Clear Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000'; Central and Southeast Park County- Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000; Jefferson and West Douglas Counties Above 6000'; Gilpin/Clear
Creek/Northeast Park Counties Below 9000’ and Southeast Park County-Elbert/Central and East Douglas Counties Above 6000’

We can expect winds up to 35 MPH, and accumulating snows up to 18″ in the highest elevations. The Front Range could see up to 4″ in some spots. Locally in Denver, it appears that a dusting to 3″ of snow is possible depending on location. If you’re south along the Palmer Divide. locally higher amounts up to say, 6″ are possible, then ramping up as you get higher in elevation. Be safe out there tonight!

-Forecaster Mike Estwick

Winter Weather Mischief Afoot

Good Morning!

Big changes are on the way for the Denver Metro, and Front Range from Colorado Springs all the way north to the state line and into Wyoming.

A robust winter storm is loaded up and heading this way, and we can expect conditions to start deteriorating quickly starting late afternoon.

FRWcurconds112519.png

WHAT’S CAUSING ALL THIS?: Quite simply, a strong surface low entering the region via the Four Corners. Any time you have a strong low tracking east-northeast from over the Four Corners/Durango part of the world, you have to be on your toes. We also have good moisture and cold air available from Canada, so all the ingredients are in place.

Take a look at the low right there on the Four Corners. Here’s the Hi-Res Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model FutureCast at 5 PM this afternoon. You see the blue over the northern part of the Front Range Urban Corridor – just in time to make PM drive a hot (or cold) mess. If we look further into the future, with a FutureCast from the European model at 5 AM tomorrow, we see this:

Plan to work from home if possible, or allow PLENTY of extra time to head into work if you must be out. Here you see the snow has spread all the way down past the Springs and toward Pueblo.

BOTTOM LINE: Prepare for a SIGNIFICANT winter weather event starting in the next 5 to 8 hours in the area. I’ll be watching it for you here, and we’ll keep you advised.

– Forecaster Mike Estwick, Front Range Weather

One For The Books!

Goodness! You talk about bipolar weather! Mother Nature definite showed a Gemini twist with the weather the last 24-36 hours! We went from summery conditions to winter, with snow included, in the space of less than a day!

The front started to make it’s presence known around 5 PM, just in time for the PM rush. Skies around the Metro clouded up with dust, thanks to the strong winds pushing out ahead of the frontal boundary. For awhile it looked like a wildfire was burning close by and the smoke pall was carried into town, or the start of an Arizona dust/sandstorm (called a haboob).

FRWrecordtempswing.png

It’s chilly in the area now, here’s the latest observations as of 6:00 AM MDT:

Boulder: 21°, Longmont: 21°, Erie: 18°, Broomfield: 18°, DIA: 12°, Buckley AFB: 16°, Centennial Airport: 14°

We’ll see highs in Denver today topping out in the mid 40’s. The weekend will be much more seasonable, readings will rebound back into the 60’s!

Whew – what a roller coaster! Have a good one!

TORNADO WATCH – NORTHEASTERN COLORADO

Good Afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for all of northeastern Colorado until 10 PM MDT.

Coloradotorwatch

Here is the text of the watch – have a good source of warning information available and a plan of where to go and what to do in case of a warning.

  URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 485
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   300 PM MDT Thu Jul 4 2019

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northeast and east-central Colorado

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until
     1000 PM MDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     A couple tornadoes possible
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter possible
     Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING BROOMFIELD, ADAMS

The National Weather Service In Denver Colorado Has Issued A
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning For…
Southwestern Weld County In Northeastern Colorado…
Eastern Broomfield County In Northeastern Colorado…
Northwestern Adams County In Northeastern Colorado…
* Until 730 Pm Mdt.
* At 646 Pm Mdt, A Severe Thunderstorm Was Located Over Northwestern Thornton, Or 15 Miles North Of Denver, Moving Northeast At 20 Mph.
Hazard…Quarter Size Hail.
Source…Radar Indicated.
Impact…Damage To Vehicles Is Expected.
* Locations Impacted Include…
Thornton, Northeastern Westminster, Northeastern Broomfield,
Northeastern Commerce City, Northglenn, Brighton, Erie, Frederick,
Fort Lupton, Lochbuie, Dacono, Barr Lake And Todd Creek.
Hail…1.00in Wind…<50mph

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WELD

The National Weather Service In Denver Colorado Has Issued A
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning For…
Southwestern Weld County In Northeastern Colorado…
Eastern Broomfield County In Northeastern Colorado…
Northwestern Adams County In Northeastern Colorado…
* Until 730 Pm Mdt.
* At 646 Pm Mdt, A Severe Thunderstorm Was Located Over Northwestern Thornton, Or 15 Miles North Of Denver, Moving Northeast At 20 Mph.
Hazard…Quarter Size Hail.
Source…Radar Indicated.
Impact…Damage To Vehicles Is Expected.
* Locations Impacted Include…
Thornton, Northeastern Westminster, Northeastern Broomfield,
Northeastern Commerce City, Northglenn, Brighton, Erie, Frederick,
Fort Lupton, Lochbuie, Dacono, Barr Lake And Todd Creek.
Hail…1.00in Wind…<50mph

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ELBERT

The National Weather Service In Denver Colorado Has Issued A
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning For…
East Central Elbert County In East Central Colorado…
Central Lincoln County In East Central Colorado…
* Until 715 Pm Mdt.
* At 627 Pm Mdt, A Severe Thunderstorm Was Located 6 Miles South Of Limon, Moving East At 20 Mph.
Hazard…Ping Pong Ball Size Hail And 60 Mph Wind Gusts.
Source…Radar Indicated.
Impact…Expect Damage To Roofs, Siding, And Trees. People And Animals Outdoors Will Be Injured. Expect Hail Damage To Roofs, Siding, Windows, And Vehicles.
* This Severe Thunderstorm Will Remain Over Mainly Rural Areas Of East Central Elbert And Central Lincoln Counties.
Hail…1.50in Wind…60mph

Developing Thunderstorm, Colorado Springs

Good Afternoon, as we await the changeover to snow from rain, look at this guy! He decided to organize over the Springs and start heading NE about 30 MPH. Hail from pea size to dime size is possible with this storm, as well as a quick downpour. Be aware of this if you’re traveling in the area of the Springs up towards Calhan and and perhaps Kiowa if it holds together.