Cool & Damp ‘Til Friday…

 

Good Morning!

Just a quick look at the next few days before the straight job gets rolling, and I’m finally feeling somewhat back to normal as I continue to fight this nasty strep infection!

DAMP AND DREARY:  The last time we talked I did tell you that the next credible threat for rain would be Wednesday/Thursday of this week, and that is surely turning out to be the case. The cold front has dropped through Colorado, taking our clear skies and mild conditions with it.  Denver is 40, Pueblo is 51, Limon is 44.  All have overcast skies right now.  NEXRAD radar shows a rain shield with varying intensity of showers in it right along the whole Front Range and stretching down into the Eastern Plains of the state.  We’ll be keeping this around for the next day or two.

WHAT’S GOING ON?:  A cutoff upper low currently over SoCal and southern Nevada is spinning, and it will soon get in gear and head more directly toward us.  As it does, we can expect our showers and thunderstorms to continue in the area.  The good is that we need the moisture badly, but at least for the moment, we will be getting it in rain form, and not snow – unless you’re up north and in the high country.  Larimer County is under a Winter Storm Warning until noon tomorrow.  As the system moves past us, which should be tomorrow afternoon, we’ll expect some gradual clearing during the evening and overnight, with Friday being a much sunnier affair than the next 48 hours will be.

Let’s put it together for you:

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And here’s the forecast:

Today – cloudy skies, periods of showers with PM thunderstorms moving in.  High only 56.

Tonight – Overcast, showers and thunderstorms, lows near 40.

Thursday – Continued cloudy, scattered showers and perhaps a lingering thunderstorm.  High 55.

The straight job calls, we’ll update this for you this evening.  Have a great Wednesday!

 

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Quick Look For the Weekend

Good Morning!

Just enough time to tell you we have a winner in store. Have a great Friday! Forecast below…

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Cooler Now, Spring Shows Up This Weekend!

Good Morning!

It is crazy to be writing this forecast for you knowing that just 48 hours ago, we were in the midst of gray, dreary skies, and there were snow showers in the area.  Today will see mild conditions, not quite as nice as Wednesday, but seasonable and pleasant.  We will see more clouds than sun today, but this will change and bring us a fantastic weekend!

BYE LOW!:  The low and associated disturbance that brought us the gray skies and snow showers has been sent packing by high pressure and ridging moving into the area.  Wedo have a bit of a shortwave disturbance working through Colorado today though, but I don’t expect much rain, if any at all.

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I marked this map to show you the weak disturbance that will have us clouded up today.  Even though the trough is weak and extends up into the Midwest, it’s still a short one in the big picture of things.  This model map from noon today shows the feature crossing through the Metro.

If you take a look behind the trough, you see a ridge elbowing it’s way into the Rockies.  This means we’ll see milder temperatures and clearing skies in time for the weekend.  IN other words, this will be the first weekend in awhile with ideal conditions to do about anything you’d like to do!  From the perch right now, I would say that our next credible threat for any widespread precipitation isn’t until the middle of next week, the Wednesday/Thursday time frame!  Nice for us, not so nice for the ground though…

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This latest drought graphic shows a tiny bit of improvement in the northern third of Colorado, but the ground gained there is lost in southern Colorado, as extreme and exceptional drought reign king there.

After we get this little disturbance out of here, we’ll clear the skies and bring on some SUNSHINE!!!

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER:

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Here’s the forecast For Denver and surrounding areas including Thornton and Englewood:

Today – More clouds than sun, cooler than yesterday.  High 63.

Tonight – Becoming mostly starry, seasonably cool.  Lows roll back to near 40.

Friday – Sunny and splendid!  Warmer.  High 71.

Saturday – Continued clear, warmer still.  High 73.

Sunday – Mile High Marvelous!  Sunshine and even warmer, high 78.

Monday – A mix of clouds and sunshine, cooler.  Some spots may see a brief lonely shower.  High 72.

Tuesday – Clouds continue to increase until we get to mainly cloudy skies and cooler.  An isolated shower can’t be ruled out.  High 64.

Wednesday – Overcast skies, an isolated or widely scattered shower is possible.  High 63.

There’s your forecast.  I hope that you have a great Thursday!

High Fire Danger In The Front Range

Good Morning!

Just a quick update to remind you to continue to be careful with open flame sources.  The entire eastern half of Colorado is under some sort of elevated fire risk, including the Front Range and the Denver Metro.  The further south you go, the higher the danger.  Colorado Springs is in a “critical” danger area, and point further south and east are in an “extreme” risk!

Low humidity and sustained 20-30 mph winds with gusts to 50 mph aren’t helping anything either.  That along with the general lack of moisture in recent weeks means that a carelessly thrown cigarette butt or something like that could cause a major problem!

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Have a great day and stay safe!

Big Changes On The Way!

Good Evening!

Major changes coming to the weather pattern here over the next 24 to 36 hours.  You can see this with the hazards map for Colorado, it’s basically got the state striped into distinct hazard areas!  Let’s recap where we are and talk about where we are headed…

RED FLAG WARNING STILL ACTIVE:  The National Weather Service continues the Red Flag Warnings, throughout the area until 9 PM for the Front Range.  We continue to deal with unseasonably mild temperatures and winds gusting to 40 MPH, so fire is a real danger.  If you don’t need to burn anything this evening, then don’t.  If you’re a smoker, please be mindful how you dispose of your smoking materials.

HIGH WIND WARNINGS ACTIVE:  From about the I-25 corridor east to a straight line drawn from Fort Morgan to Eads is under a High Wind Warning for sustained winds of 40 MPH or better, that will impact driving for those with high profile vehicles.  But wait, there more…

BLIZZARD WARNING:  A deepening surface low will make full use of the moisture coming up from the Gulf and Desert Southwest, and snow will be flying by daybreak tomorrow, with the most intense strengthening expected to occur early tomorrow and through the day Friday.  This will definitely make travel east on I-70 into Kansas or I-76 into Nebraska dicey at best.

SHARP COOL DOWN:  We will  give back about 25 degrees or better of warmth for Friday, as a strong cold front works through Colorado, and the wind will aid and abet that temperature drop.

PRECIPITATION:  We will see some widely scattered showers, we may may see some snowflakes mixed in with that.   The good news is that we don’t expect any snow to accumulate of any consequence.

We’ll look at some fresh weather data in the early morning and fill out the forecast for you!

 

FIRE WEATHER ALERT – EASTERN/SOUTHERN COLORADO

Good Evening!

Just a brief up[date to the forecast and such from this morning to advise you that the fire weather danger has INCREASED in Colorado, especially the Eastern Plains and Front Range.  Warmer conditions with wind and very low humidity have the are primed for any ignition source to create a big problem.

Here’s what the National Weather Service has to say about it:

+++++++++++++++++++

URGENT – FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
216 PM MDT Tue Apr 10 2018

…FIRE DANGER INCREASES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY…

.Critical fire danger will develop across the Front Range
Foothills, Park County, and all of the plains on Wednesday as
warmer temperatures combine with gusty winds and very low
humidities.

Fire danger may become extreme in some areas by Thursday as winds
continue to strengthen in a very warm and dry airmass. The
highest danger on Thursday will likely develop from South Park
and the Southern Foothills across the Palmer Divide area.
Critical conditions will be possible farther north, but
confidence is not as high north of I-76.

…RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS…SOUTH PARK…AND ALL OF THE PLAINS…

…RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT
THURSDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS…SOUTH PARK…AND ALL OF THE PLAINS…

* Affected Area…Fire Weather Zones 214…216…239…240…
241…245…246…247 and 249.

* Timing…Critical conditions are expected to develop late
Wednesday morning and continue into early Wednesday evening.
Extreme fire danger is expected late Thursday morning through
Thursday evening.

* Winds…Southwest to west 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph
Wednesday and up to 50 mph Thursday.

* Relative Humidity…As low as 9 percent.

* Impacts…Conditions will be favorable for new fire starts and
rapid fire growth. Extreme fire behavior is possible Thursday
due to stronger winds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now….or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds…low relative humidity…and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

++++++++++++++++++

If you smoke – PLEASE BE CAREFUL HOW YOU DISPOSE OF YOUR SMOKING MATERIAL.  USE AN ASHTRAY OR STOMP IT OUT ON PAVEMENT.  DON’T JUST THROW IT INTO THE GRASS OR FLICK IT OUT THE CAR WINDOW!  If you’re cooking out or otherwise have an open flame, have a way to put the fire out and make sure it’s out.  Call 9-1-1 if your see a fire, as in these condition, it will spread QUICKLY!

Gorgeous Through Thursday…

Good Morning!

Crisp clear skies in the Metro and Front Range to start the day, but this belies the danger out there.  Let’s get into that and see where the weather journey will take us the next several days.

FIRE DANGER:  Because we have been so dry this winter, combined with mile, breezy weather building in, we’re primed for fire if someone is careless and throws a lit cigarette out the car window or something like that.  So please, if you smoke, be mindful how you get rid of it when you’re done!  Look at these graphics:

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Here’s a look at the latest map from the US Drought Monitor.  As you can see, almost all of Colorado is in some degree of dryness or outright drought.  The white indicates no drought, then the closer you get to red, the more parched the land.

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This is the US Hazard Map from the National Weather Service.  As you can see, the eastern two-thirds of Colorado today is under a Red Flag Warning, along with the northern half of New Mexico and the western third of Kansas.  We’ll be that way for the next couple of days based on our pattern change to…

MORE SPRING-LIKE CONDITIONS:  The upper pattern is shifting and we can expect a nice warm-up for the next few days.  We’ll see temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal or better until late Thursday when our next cool down and weather maker works it’s way into the Front Range, add clear skies to that and you can’t ask for much better weather!

END OF THE WORK WEEK:  As the high pressure and ridging move off to the east Thursday night into Friday, we can expect sharply cooler conditions and increasing clouds.  Friday morning’s commute to work could be a bit wet, as forecast model data is suggesting some rain or snow showers for AM drive.  Saturday looks to be chilly and a tad damp (I certainly hope that changes as we get closer), but Sunday should see the return of milder conditions back to the area.

Here’s the forecast for Denver and surrounding areas including Parker and Broomfield:

Today – Sunny, breezy, splendid.  High 70.

Tonight – Clear and starry skies, seasonable.  Lows roll back to only near 45.

Wednesday – Full-on sunshine, warmer still.  High 76.  Some spots south of the Metro along I-25 could see 80.

Thursday – AM, Continued sunny and warming a touch more, PM increasing clouds and temperatures will start to fall late.  High 77.

Friday – Cloudy and sharply colder, some rain or snow showers are possible, highs struggle to reach 53.

Saturday – More clouds than sunshine, a touch warmer.  Highs near 54.

Sunday – Mixed sunshine and warmer, some spots could see a lonely shower.  High 64/

I hope that you have a wonderful day.