Winter Reboot

Good Afternoon!

I just looked at this blog and I realized that it has been EIGHT MONTHS since the last time that I posted something here.  That is FAR too long.  I apologize, but when you’re living life and working two jobs, non-essential things tend to get pushed to the side.  At any rate, while I have some time let’s see what’s under the hood…

SEASONABLY COLD:  We note the upper air pattern has Canada wide open, with cold air diving down in a trough from north of the border.  Have a look at this chart:

sundayhi021118

You can see the Canadian air for sure on this, the trough all the way down into Texas and New Mexico.  The upper air look shows the trough and the cold air as well.

PATTERN RESET ANYTIME SOON?:  Well, from the looks of it, forecast data is advertising a brief warm-up for the Front Range over the next few days.  After we get through a very cold Monday where highs struggle to get to and hold freezing, we should see some ground gained north of 32, with readings into the 50’s for Tuesday and Wednesday, as a bit of upper ridging builds and forces the cold polar air back north, closer to the international border.

Wedhitemp021118.png

The map above shows the GFS model’s idea of a high temperature for Tuesday, and here’s Wednesday’s map:

thuhightemp021118.png

This will help melt some of the snow we picked up Saturday.

CHILLY COMES BACK:  For the latter half of the week, Thursday and Friday, Old Man Winter comes reminds us of his presence, and we keep readings around 40 for daytime highs, which is a bit below the seasonal average of 47 around the area.  For the weekend, we’ll get back to some slightly above average conditions, with temperatures in the low 50’s.

CHASERCON:  For you weather buffs, especially the severe weather fans, the 20th Annual ChaserCon will be held in Denver this coming weekend, starting with an icebreaker and social Friday night, then the convention on Saturday and Sunday.  As it stands now the forecast will be seasonably mild with daytime highs in the upper 40’s or low 50’s and I’m not seeing anything in the way of precipitation.

Here’s the forecast for the Denver Metro and surrounding areas including Commerce City and Lakewood:

6dayplanner21118.png

I hope that you have a great rest of your Sunday!

Advertisements

Much Cooler For A Bit!!!

Good Morning!

An unseasonably strong and moist frontal system has worked through Colorado, it has kicked in the door and marched well south.  Combine that with some upsloping flow that was here thanks to the ghost of Tropical Storm Cindy southeast of us, and we get the gray skies and showers that are in the area.  It’s a welcome break from the Mile High Heater we have been experiencing.  Let’s take a look in detail!

conditions0623

COOL AND DAMP:  Just yesterday morning, we were looking at readings 10-15 degrees warmer to start the day, mid to upper 60’s!  Look at the graphic below and see the change!  Longmont is the warm spot at 57, Boulder 52, Broomfield 48, DIA 50, Buckley AFB 46, Centennial 45 and rainy.  Plenty of clouds too.

WHAT’S CAUSING ALL THIS?:  Simply put, a Canadian Special.  You usually don’t see these until we’re much closer to the cold season.  Have a look at the upper air charts and we’ll discuss them:  First one, 500 millibars – 18,000 feet up where the jets play:

500mb062317

Here you see the bottom parts of the jet stream aloft, the core is up near the borders of WY/MT and the Dakotas.  Zonal flow south of that here in Colorado.

700mb062317

A little bit further down, at about 10,000 feet, we note a bit of a disturbance on the CO/NM border.  Here we can see a little more of the ghost of Cindy over the Deep South as well.

700mb062317

Here’s the surface map as suggested by the GFS Forecast model.  You see the 1025 millibar high at the Montana border with Canada, but more important, see that 570 red line?  Just a little to the south of that line, there’s a cold front that the Canadian high up near the border is giving a big push to.  All the colors on the map are the model’s idea of precipitation, and it’s not too far off from what the national NEXRAD composite is looking like right now…

NEXRADcomp062317

Here’s a look at the current NEXRAD composite for you, and you see the stream of moisture stretching from upstate NY, back through the Ohio Valley, then roughly along the Mississippi down through Louisiana, then there’s a few showers in NE and KS.  The difference between the panel above and this radar composite is that the rains have dissipated over Denver for the time being.  With that being said, we may see a few more showers until the frontal boundary gets a bit further away from us.

LET’S LOOK AHEAD:  Moving down the line, we’ll see just the chance of a stray shower or two late tomorrow night along with periods of clouds and sunshine.  That’s really about it as far as chances for precipitation through the weekend.  As we look into next week, the next credible chance for rain appears to be a week from today, and the Fourth looks like it should be dry.

Here’s the forecast:

Today – Mainly cloudy with a just a hint of PM sun, unseasonably cool.  High only 65.

Tonight – Some clearing, very cool.  Lows roll back to 51.

Saturday – Mixed sunshine to start, then becoming cloudy, perhaps an isolated shower in the evening high 75.

Sunday – Becoming sunny, high 72.

Monday – Periods of clouds and sunshine, noticeably warmer.  High 85.

Tuesday – Partly sunny skies, very warm, some isolated to scattered PM showers or a hit & run thunderstorm possible.  High 93.

Wednesday – Blended sunshine, not as warm as Tuesday, high 88.

Thursday – More clouds than sunshine, cooler.  High 79.

Have a great weekend!

Mile High Heater!!!

Good Morning!

Excuse the baseball reference but hey, the Rockies are first in the National League West, and that’s not a bad thing.  Nature will be serving up some heat of her own as temperatures climb for the weekend.  Looks like a definite water or high country weekend from here.  Just enough time to give you an overview and six day planner this morning…

frontrange060817frontrange0608172

As I marked on the graphic, someone in the area will see an isolated or even widely scattered hit & run thunderstorm, with the best chance for those in the afternoons right around PM rush hour.  These could have some brief heavy downpours, gusty wind and possible hail up to dime size.  Plenty of space anticipated between cells though.

I hope you have a great Thursday!

Summer Is Here!!!

Good Morning!

A gorgeous one in the Denver Metro right now.  Barely a cloud in the sky, seasonably warm but not brutal, ahhhh :),  summer in Colorado.  Dare I say another installment of “Mile High Marvelous”!?  Let take a look and see what’s going on.

STILL NOT DANGEROUSLY DRY:   I usually don’t start off talking about our moisture, but all the rain and snow that came kind of in a rush that extended our winter/spring seasons out of what you normally see has helped us out.  No part of Colorado is in a drought state at this time!  There’s just a couple of patches that are showing as “abnormally dry”  and these are southwest of Denver up in the rocks, then over toward Grand Junction.  Nothing to worry about here in the Front Range and Metro at this time.

OK, WHAT’S COOKING OVERHEAD?:  Good question.  We’ll start up top and come down to where we live and work.  Way up high at 250 millibars, or about 34,000 feet up in the sky where we see the jet stream, we note a split flow pattern established.  The north split (the Polar Front Jet), comes southeast until about 100 miles offshore then a hard left and back northeast into Canada.  The south split (Subtropical Jet) is actually doing the same thing, but in a much more compact fashion, and we see that over the Four Corners.

Coming down to 500 millibars, about 18,000 feet up, we see more detail in the pattern I talked about above.  The lower 48 is under a high amplitude ridge/trough/ridge setup, and you outdoor lovers here will be pleased to note that we’re under a ridge in the Rockies.  That means we’ll see some dry southerly air in the area, and seasonably mild conditions.

Down here where we walk, live, and play, sunny skies and readings in the low to mid 70’s at this hour.  Here’s a look at the latest Water Vapor satellite image for you:

wvsat060417.png

We note a complex of showers and thunderstorms over the TX/LA border and extending a ways into Louisiana, but that’s about it.  Nothing in Colorado but sunshine!

WHAT’S ON TAP?:  Not a lot really.  The pattern we’re in right now will persist for at least the next week to ten days according to the forecast model data that I have seen.  With the ridge overhead, all the big weather makers get deflected up into Canada and then slide back down into the Plains and Upper Midwest, or, they have to run way down into Mexico and then they re-enter the US through South Texas.  Either way, it means that we have a fairly quiet pattern.  The only semi-credible chance of organized rain in the Metro this week appears to be Monday and Tuesday, not long after PM rush starts.  I’m seeing some widely scattered to scattered showers with maybe a bit of thunder.  Aside from that, you can expect the typical hit and miss scattered PM shower or lonely storm that we can see in the afternoons and evenings thanks to daytime heating and upslope flow, especially near the foothills and down over Old Man Palmer.

LOOKING AHEAD:  No major weather news coming until this upper air pattern resets itself and the ridge moves east enough to allow some systems to actually get into the Rockies and do something.  As stated, that reset appears to be a week or so off at a minimum.  Here’s the six day planner for you:

sixday060417.png

As you can see, warming up and definitely pool weather for next weekend.

I hope that you have a wonderful rest of your day and a good start to the week!

Quick Look For The Weekend

Good Morning!

It’s the first full day of meteorological summer, and the weather for once agrees with the calendar!  In only 20 days we start astrological summer.

Weather wise, nothing too fancy…

Fairly benign weather patterns in place for the metro.  No severe weather forecast by the Storm Prediction Center for the next three days.  Areas will see some isolated to widely scattered garden variety pop-up showers and thunderstorms, especially tomorrow night.

Temperatures across the board will range from mid to upper 70s to as high as 86 over the next several days.  I’m expecting 78-82 here in the Metro, warming to 81-85 for early next week.  The 86 readings should be north (Greeley and Ft. Collins), then out on the eastern plains.  Nighttime lows should be in the mid to upper 50s.

Have a great Thursday!